内蒙古农业经济增长影响因素的计量研究

An Econometric Study of the Factors Affecting the Growth of AgriculturalEconomy in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

中文关键词: 农业经济增长  生产函数模型  时间序列数据  因素分析

英文关键词: agricultural economic growth  production function model  time series data  factor analysis

中文摘要:

      内蒙古自治区成立70年以来，农业经济得到了快速发展。通过扩展生产函数模型，对1978-2015年内蒙古农业发展的时间序列数据进行分析，研究农业经济增长的影响因素，根据模型的估计与计量检验，得到最终的回归方程。研究结果表明，土地、化肥、机械等传统生产要素的资本投入依然是内蒙古农业产值增长的动力，而农作物成灾与劳动力过剩则制约了农业的进一步发展。此外，牧业在第一产业所占比重、劳动力文化状况等因素也对农业经济增长具有显著影响。

英文摘要:

      Since the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the agricultural economy has developed rapidly. By extending the production function model, studied the influencing factors of agricultural economic growth based on the time-series data of agricultural development in Inner Mongolia in 1978-2015 years. According to the model estimation and econometric test, the final regression equation is obtained. The results show that the capital investment of traditional production factors such as land, fertilizer and machinery is still the driving force of GDP growth in Inner Mongolia. However, the crop disaster and the surplus labor force restrict the further development of Agriculture. In addition, the proportion of animal husbandry in the primary industry and the cultural status of workers also have a significant impact on the development o fagricultural economy